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Archive for March, 2010

Can Statistical Analysis Explain Soccer? – Revisited

A quick google search for ’soccer statistics’ pulls up an interesting article in the New York Times from 2008.  With quite an impressive comment section as well.

According to the by-line “Carl Bialik examines the way numbers are used, and abused.”  The article is somewhat well written, explaining how teams are using much more advanced statistical tracking programs such as Pro-Zone, and what the right applications are for those programs.  Also, chalking up pure luck to the success of many soccer teams (which is completely false in my opinion.)

The benchmark for sports statistics is Sabremetrics, and the book Moneyball, written by Michael Lewis.  In it, Lewis describes the rise of the Oakland A’s baseball team through the use of complex statistical analysis to best predict the outcome of a match.

Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game is a book by Michael M. Lewis, released in 2003, about the general manager of Major League Baseball’s Oakland AthleticsBilly Beane, and his rather unconventional approach to running that organization. The central premise of Moneyball is that the collected wisdom of baseball insiders (including players, managers, coaches, scouts, and the front office) over the past century is subjective and often flawed. Statistics like 60 yard dash times, RBIs, and batting average that are typically used to gauge players are relics of a 19th-century view of the game and the statistics that were available at the time - ArmChairGM

The divide between soccer and baseball is the fluidity of the game.  Baseball can be determined by a few variables (pitcher, batter, count for instance) whereas in soccer, there are hundreds of variables which come into play each time a statistic is kept.

Critics state, “Statistics cannot accurately predict the score of a game, because numbers alone cannot predict a player’s performance.”

Exactly, we all know that.  Anyone who thinks stats can predict the outcome alone is foolish.  Soccer is a game that is often decided by a few events which result in a goal or a defensive lapse conceding a goal to your opponent.

If you know your right back is not able to string passes out of the backfield to the midfielders, then maybe it is time for a switch.  Most teams do not keep track of stats, so they don’t know the time to replace a player, and when to keep him in.

The important idea to remember is a combination of statistics and a coaches intuition can greatly improve your chance at winning, or fielding the most successful team out of your given options.

Tip – Minimize Distractions

They say that women are better multi-taskers than men but when it comes to recording stats during a game it’s vital to cut down the number of tasks regardless of gender!  Many people who start to use Statzpack for the first time tell us, ‘I really found it hard to record the stats and watch the game’.  Well that’s probably because you can’t do both at the same time.  You’ll certainly find it hard to cheer on your team and record meaningful accurate stats.  Even more difficult if you are actually coaching or one of the team is your child J.   It’s important to create for yourself an ‘observation environment’ away from vocal crowds or from your buddies chatting about the night before.  Ideally you should have one person with you who is tuned in the game and will help you with game info during the match.  Arrive early so you do not get stuck sitting in a row where you have to let people in and out past you or in a place where your view can be obstructed. And if needed where a hat that says ‘Do not disturb’ on the front.  Or even as one user from Vancouver, Canada told us  ‘It’s easy, I just sit up on the bench, away from the guys, plug in my earphones, kick into Bruce Springsteen, watch the game, and record the stats.’  Good idea, just watch the battery level on the iPod touch!

Manchester United App – the results

What do you get if you combine a 17 year old Man United fan and our new App, ManU Tracker.  Answer = a lot. So here are the stats that this user – David – recorded using our new App.

Manchester United Fans can now track their team

Now available in iTunes, the ManU Tracker iPhone App.  For all Manchester United fans and soccer stattos who love to follow the game and track their own player stats we’ve made the perfect App.  You pick the team colours.  You pick the team from the available squad.   Get half time and full time stats summaries and you can even post the summary to the web to share with your friends. All for less than a cup of coffee.  All powered by Statzpack.